Russia-Ukraine Fighting Resumes as Three-Day Ceasefire Collapses

The Russia-Ukraine war returned to full intensity this week after a fragile three-day ceasefire collapsed, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reporting that Russia launched more than 200 drones against Ukraine overnight as the truce expired. The renewed fighting has complicated diplomatic efforts that, briefly, appeared to be inching toward a more durable pause in the conflict.

For Canada, the war's trajectory remains a central foreign policy and economic issue. Ottawa has committed billions in military, financial and humanitarian support to Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, while Canadian businesses, energy markets and diaspora communities all continue to feel the war's effects.

The ceasefire and its collapse

Russia and Ukraine observed a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, during which they agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the surrounding window to suggest that his country's war on Ukraine might be coming to an end, and to express willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country if a peace deal is finalised.

The truce did not hold beyond its initial three days. Zelenskyy said Russia was neither observing the ceasefire fully nor making a serious effort to do so, with limited calm in front-line areas and continued attacks on civilian infrastructure away from the lines. The renewed drone barrage shortly after the truce's expiry confirmed that fighting had returned to its pre-ceasefire intensity.

Ukrainian forces in turn struck gas facilities in southwest Russia's Orenburg region, more than 1,500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, demonstrating the continuing reach of Ukrainian long-range strike capability.

Military trajectory

According to data tracked by Western analysts, Russia recorded a net loss of approximately 12 square miles in the week of May 5 to 12. Russia launched more than 8,000 drones in the previous month, the highest monthly total since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Casualty estimates remain grim. A senior former Western official estimated that Russia has suffered approximately one million military casualties, killed and wounded, since the start of the invasion. Ukrainian casualties are estimated at between 250,000 and 300,000.

The territorial situation has remained largely static through 2026, with neither side achieving the kind of breakthrough that would force a decisive change in the war's contours. Russia continues to grind forward in pockets of the east, while Ukraine has used long-range strikes to attack Russian energy infrastructure, ammunition depots and military bases far from the front lines.

Diplomatic dynamics

The on-again, off-again pattern of diplomacy through the spring has illustrated how difficult it remains to bridge the gap between Russian and Ukrainian positions. The Trump administration has periodically pressed for ceasefires, including the three-day pause that just collapsed.

Putin's suggestion that the war is coming to an end has been viewed by Western officials with significant skepticism. Russian troops continue to attack and Russian rhetoric has not aligned with the kind of concessions that would form the basis of a negotiated end to the war. Ukrainian officials have called repeatedly for a comprehensive ceasefire rather than short, partial pauses.

Canada's role

Canada has been one of Ukraine's most consistent international partners, providing more than $20 billion in support since the invasion began, including military equipment, financial assistance, training programs and humanitarian aid. The Carney government has signalled that this support will continue.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has used international forums to argue for a stronger European-led security architecture, including expanded support for Ukraine. In recent comments, the Prime Minister suggested that Europe will need to anchor world order amid uncertainty about the long-term commitment of the United States to multilateral institutions.

The Canadian Armed Forces have continued to train Ukrainian soldiers under Operation Unifier, which has now operated for more than a decade. Canada has also contributed to NATO posture in eastern Europe through Operation Reassurance, including a long-standing commitment to lead the multinational brigade in Latvia.

Economic and energy implications

For Canadian energy markets, the war has been a structural disruption. The disappearance of Russian natural gas from European pipelines has reshaped global energy flows, with liquefied natural gas exports from Canada, the United States, Qatar and Australia all in higher demand.

The federal government's energy strategy, including the recent climate and energy memorandum of understanding with Alberta, has been informed in part by the changed global energy picture since 2022. The push to expand Canadian export capacity to non-American markets reflects both the trade pressures with the United States and the longer-term shifts in global energy demand.

The Bank of Canada has flagged oil and energy prices, partly tied to global geopolitical tensions including the Russia-Ukraine war and instability in the Middle East, as contributors to recent inflation readings. The Bank's policy rate is being held at 2.25 per cent.

Public opinion and political consensus

Canadian public opinion has remained generally supportive of continued aid to Ukraine, although polling has shown some softening over time as the war has stretched into its fourth year. The federal political parties have largely maintained a consensus on the importance of supporting Ukraine, with relatively limited substantive disagreement on the broad parameters of Canadian policy.

The Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, has consistently supported military and financial aid to Ukraine while raising specific questions about implementation, oversight and the structure of particular packages. The New Democratic Party has supported aid while emphasising humanitarian assistance and the long-term reconstruction needs. The Bloc Quebecois has also supported aid, framed around Quebec's significant Ukrainian community.

The political consensus has provided stability to Canadian policy, ensuring continuity across government changes and through periods of domestic political turbulence. The consistency of support has been noted by Ukrainian officials and by Canadian allies as a particular strength of Canada's contribution to the broader Western response.

Maintaining the consensus over the longer term may require ongoing engagement with Canadians on the rationale for continued support, the connection to broader Canadian interests and the specific outcomes that have been achieved. Federal officials have committed to transparent reporting on aid programs and on their impact, supporting public accountability.

The Canadian-Ukrainian community

Canada is home to one of the largest Ukrainian diaspora communities in the world, with deep roots in the Prairie provinces and significant populations across the country. Ukrainian-Canadian organisations have been actively engaged in fundraising, advocacy and support for newcomers fleeing the war.

The Canada-Ukraine Authorisation for Emergency Travel program has admitted hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians since 2022, providing temporary residence and work authorisation for those displaced by the war. Many have built lives in Canadian communities, including in cities and rural areas across the Prairies, Ontario and Quebec.

Ukrainian-Canadian Congress leaders have continued to press federal and provincial governments to maintain robust support for Ukraine, including military assistance and accountability for war crimes.

The broader Western response

The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other allies have continued to provide military and financial support to Ukraine. NATO members have been increasing defence spending, with several European countries committing to longer-term commitments to higher defence budgets.

The Trump administration's approach has at times complicated the Western alliance, with periodic public friction between Washington and Kyiv. Canada and several European allies have worked to ensure continued support for Ukraine even amid those tensions, including through coordinated mechanisms designed to keep aid flowing.

Sanctions, accountability and frozen assets

Canada has implemented a broad sanctions regime against Russia since 2022, targeting individuals, entities, financial institutions and economic sectors. The federal government has worked closely with allies, particularly through the G7 and the European Union, to maintain coordinated pressure on the Russian economy.

Discussions about the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine's reconstruction have continued among Western governments, with progress on a Group of Seven loan arrangement that uses interest from frozen assets as collateral. Canada has been an active participant in those discussions, including through its hosting of major multilateral meetings.

Accountability for war crimes remains a longer-term focus of Canadian foreign policy. Canada has supported the International Criminal Court's investigation, contributed to evidence-gathering through Ukrainian and international partners and supported civil society organisations documenting alleged war crimes for future prosecutions.

For Canadian businesses, the sanctions regime has required significant compliance work, including divestment from Russian operations, screening of supply chains and engagement with regulators on permitted activities. Several Canadian financial institutions have played important roles in implementing sanctions and supporting Ukrainian financial stability.

What's next

The collapse of the three-day ceasefire suggests that further diplomatic efforts are likely in the coming weeks, even as fighting continues. The possibility of additional, longer ceasefires remains on the table, although the gap between Russian and Ukrainian positions on the terms of any settlement remains wide.

For Canadian policy, the immediate priority is continued military and financial support for Ukraine alongside diplomatic engagement with allies. Longer-term, the war's outcome will shape European security, global energy markets and the international rules-based order in ways that will affect Canada for decades.

For Canadians, the war remains a distant but consequential reality. Its trajectory continues to influence economic conditions at home, foreign policy choices in Ottawa, and the daily lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian newcomers who now call Canada home.