Poilievre Faces Growing Leadership Pressure as Conservative Voters Split on His Future

Pierre Poilievre is navigating the most difficult stretch of his leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada since he took the role in September 2022. New polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows that 30 per cent of Canadians who voted Conservative in the 2025 federal election now want him replaced as leader, up from 18 per cent last August. A 57 per cent majority of past Conservative voters still prefer that he lead the party into the next general election, but the trend line is moving against him and the mood inside the caucus has darkened.

The polling landed in the same week Mark Carney's Liberals secured a majority government through three byelection victories, a turn that has deepened questions about whether Poilievre can rebuild momentum for his party. Several of those byelection races featured former Conservative voters crossing the aisle, and defections from Conservative MPs have given the Liberals an unusually large parliamentary cushion for this point in a new Parliament.

What the polling shows

The Angus Reid survey found that about 57 per cent of people who cast a Conservative ballot in 2025 want Poilievre to lead the party into the next general election. That is a majority, but a shrinking one. In August 2025, the equivalent figure was closer to 80 per cent. Among the broader Canadian electorate, Poilievre's favourability remains below both Carney's and his own historical norms.

Angus Reid's pollsters concluded that Poilievre's leadership is still 'secure but eroding,' with his strongest support concentrated in Alberta, Saskatchewan and rural Ontario. In suburban Greater Toronto, Quebec outside Montreal, and urban British Columbia, approval numbers have dropped more sharply. The Conservatives' national vote share has come off its 2025 election highs, though Angus Reid's latest topline still puts the party near parity with the Liberals in popular support.

Other recent polling aligns with Angus Reid's findings. A separate CTV News survey showed that a larger minority of Conservative voters now want a new leader, with particular softness in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Pollsters caution that Canadian public opinion has been unusually volatile since the 2025 campaign, with the Iran war, U.S. tariffs and domestic affordability pressures all driving sharp swings.

Why the byelection losses hurt

Carney's Liberals secured their parliamentary majority through byelection wins and through a series of Conservative MP defections since the April 2025 election. Poilievre himself has been the member of Parliament for Battle River-Crowfoot since August 2025, after losing his Carleton seat in the general election and winning a safe Alberta riding in a subsequent byelection.

Several MPs within the Conservative caucus, speaking to CBC News on background following the latest byelection defeats, said morale is at a low point. Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer, in a public statement, insisted the caucus is united behind Poilievre, and several senior MPs echoed that message on social media. The disconnect between the public expressions of unity and the private unease is a familiar pattern for parties struggling after a difficult election cycle.

The defections from Conservative ranks have contributed to the sense that the party lacks a clear direction. Some former MPs have said they found Poilievre's messaging too combative or too focused on culture-war issues at a moment when voters want practical economic answers. Others have cited disagreements over how to approach U.S. tariffs, the defence budget, and Carney's affordability measures.

The affordability pivot

Poilievre built his leadership campaign and much of his 2025 federal election platform around an affordability message centred on inflation, housing costs, gasoline prices and the carbon tax. Several of those issues have since shifted under his feet. Carney eliminated the consumer carbon tax shortly after taking office as Liberal leader last year, then suspended the federal fuel excise tax on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel from April 20 through September 7 to offset Middle East-driven energy price spikes.

Housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver have softened, and the Bank of Canada's policy rate, steady at 2.25 per cent, has taken pressure off mortgage renewals for many households. Inflation ticked up to 2.4 per cent in March but is still far below the peaks of 2022 and 2023 that defined Poilievre's political rise. The combination has narrowed the space for his sharpest affordability attacks and forced Conservatives to look for new lines.

Poilievre's recent speeches have focused on what he calls Carney's 'corporate insider' economy, arguing that the prime minister's years at the Bank of England and in the private sector make him better attuned to bond traders than to working Canadians. Liberals have dismissed the critique as inconsistent with Carney's public record on climate and inequality, while conservative commentators are divided on whether the attack lands with voters.

Inside the caucus

Conservative MPs have been holding weekly meetings at which leadership is not formally on the agenda but is, according to members who described the discussions on background, a recurring undercurrent. Several senior MPs have said they want Poilievre to stay on, both because the party rules make a leadership change difficult on short notice and because they see no obvious alternative. Others said the caucus will have to evaluate his standing once the party's constitutional review of the leadership occurs, typically within months of an election loss.

Andrew Scheer, who himself resigned as Conservative leader in 2019 after failing to form government, has played an active role in defending Poilievre this spring. House leaders across party lines say Scheer's experience has helped keep the caucus functional during a period of external scrutiny. Deputy Leader Melissa Lantsman, long seen as a possible future leadership contender, has repeatedly said the caucus is focused on opposing the government's agenda rather than on internal politics.

The party's national council, which would formally trigger a leadership review, has not signalled any intention to do so at this stage. Conservative officials say the party's focus is on preparing for a confidence vote on the Carney government's upcoming budget and on continuing to hold the Liberals to account in the House of Commons.

What it means for Canadians

The state of the Conservative Party matters to Canadians beyond its own ranks. Canada's parliamentary system relies on a strong opposition to scrutinise legislation, demand answers in Question Period and put alternative policy ideas into the public debate. A leadership fight, public or private, tends to slow that work and to distract opposition resources from policy development.

With the Carney government holding a majority and preparing major legislation, including a federal budget and the CUSMA review strategy, strong opposition scrutiny is particularly important. Conservative critics have pressed the government on the fuel tax suspension, on the scope of the Canada-U.S. advisory committee, and on the defence buildup required to hit NATO's 2 per cent spending target. Whether Poilievre's team can sustain that pressure through a period of leadership uncertainty will shape how effectively Parliament functions.

For Conservative voters, the leadership question is also about what kind of party they want to back. Polling suggests the base is split between those who value Poilievre's combative style and those who want a broader, more moderate approach to win back suburban ridings the party lost in 2025.

The Carney factor

Carney's rise has reshaped Canadian politics. He was sworn in as Liberal leader and prime minister in March 2025, replaced Justin Trudeau ahead of the general election, and led his party to a minority win on April 28, 2025. After the 2026 byelection sweep he enjoys a working majority. His combination of central banking credibility, moderate policy positions and willingness to engage directly on Trump's tariffs has reframed the Liberal Party's political offering.

Poilievre, who spent much of the 2025 campaign warning that Canadians would face a 'Trump-lite' scenario if Carney became prime minister, has had to adjust his framing as Carney has settled into the office. The prime minister's personal approval numbers outstrip Poilievre's in most regions, a reversal of the dynamic that defined Conservative polling through late 2024.

Whether Poilievre can rebuild his standing will depend in part on events outside his control. A serious economic downturn tied to U.S. tariffs, a spike in violent crime, a scandal or fiscal overreach by the government would each create openings. Without a clear external catalyst, however, changing the trajectory of public opinion is more difficult.

Byelection geography

The recent byelections that sealed the Liberal majority were held in ridings where the Conservatives had been competitive in 2025. Liberal candidates turned out stronger than expected in suburban Ontario and in one urban riding in Western Canada, according to Elections Canada's detailed results. Conservative strategists have attributed the losses partly to low turnout, though independent analysts said the numbers suggest a genuine softening of Conservative support.

The byelection outcomes also mattered because they coincided with a run of Conservative MP defections. Over the past six months, several Conservative MPs have crossed to the Liberal caucus, citing disagreements over leadership and policy. Those defections have helped Carney get to the seat count he needed to rely on his own caucus rather than negotiate with the NDP or Bloc Québécois.

What's next

Poilievre has signalled he plans to stay and fight. He has a secure seat in Battle River-Crowfoot, strong support in the Conservative base, and no credible internal challenger who has publicly declared an interest in the job. The next scheduled federal general election is in 2029, giving the party time to recover if the caucus holds together.

The next test comes quickly. Carney's government is expected to table its first majority-mandate budget in the coming weeks, and that document will be subject to a confidence vote. Conservatives plan to oppose the budget but, without the ability to force an election, the vote will be more a political messaging exercise than a test of the government's survival. How Poilievre handles that moment, and what comes after, will shape the summer political cycle.

For now, the Conservative leader has a narrowing window to reset the conversation. The Angus Reid polling, the byelection losses and the quiet anxieties inside the caucus all point in the same direction. What Poilievre does next, more than what the Liberals do, will decide whether the Conservative Party heads into 2026 and beyond on the front foot or still catching its breath.