Ukraine War Grinds On as Belarus Border Tensions Add to Canada's Defence Calculus

The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year with no clear end in sight, and the past week has produced fresh concerns about both Russian escalation and the role of Belarus on Ukraine's northern border. For Canada, which has provided sustained diplomatic, military, and humanitarian support to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, the conflict continues to demand attention even as new crises in the Middle East and the trade dispute with Washington compete for federal bandwidth.

The latest week saw Russian forces deploy approximately 1,600 attack drones, nearly 1,100 guided bombs, and three missiles against Ukrainian targets. At least two people were killed and seven injured when a Russian drone struck a civilian bus in Kherson in the early hours of May 2. Drone strikes also hit Dnipro, Odesa, Sumy, and Kharkiv, including an attack that damaged an energy infrastructure facility.

Ukrainian responses and the Tuapse strike

Ukrainian forces have continued their own strike campaign deep into Russian territory. Ukraine's Defence Forces struck a tactical group of Iskander operational-tactical missile systems, along with Podlyot and MIS-M1 radar stations, ammunition depots, and drone command centres of the Russian army during the night of May 2.

Ukrainian drones also hit Russia's Tuapse port for the fourth time in 16 days, marking what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit Russia's war potential. The strikes have targeted Russian oil and gas export infrastructure, with the cumulative effect of disrupting Russian revenue at a moment when the Kremlin is also stretched by simultaneous attention to its border with Belarus and its broader military posture.

Cumulative Russian combat losses since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022, are estimated at approximately 1,332,950 personnel, according to recent figures, though all such estimates remain contested. The grinding nature of the conflict has continued to produce significant casualties on both sides, with frontline operations in eastern Ukraine showing little decisive movement.

Belarus and the northern flank

President Zelenskyy has repeated warnings to Belarus not to get involved in Russia's invasion as Ukraine reports unusual activity near the shared border. The Belarusian role has been a recurring concern since the start of the war, when Russian forces used Belarusian territory to launch the initial advance on Kyiv.

Belarus has not directly committed combat troops to Ukraine, but its territory has been used for staging, training, and weapons movement. New activity along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, even if it falls short of full mobilisation, raises the prospect that Russia could be preparing to open a secondary front or to draw Ukrainian forces northward away from the eastern frontline.

Western intelligence agencies, including Canada's, have been closely monitoring the situation. NATO and EU defence ministers have discussed contingency planning for any Belarusian involvement, and Poland and the Baltic states have reinforced their own border postures in recent weeks.

Diplomatic developments

U.S. Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have reportedly agreed on 90 to 95 per cent of a peace proposal, though the remaining elements include some of the most contentious issues, including territorial questions, security guarantees, and the long-term status of areas currently under Russian occupation.

Russian acceptance of any proposal remains uncertain. The Kremlin has continued to make maximalist demands, including recognition of annexed territories, limits on Ukrainian military capabilities, and constraints on NATO involvement in Ukrainian security. Until those gaps narrow, the diplomatic process is unlikely to produce a binding agreement.

Canada has supported the broader diplomatic effort while maintaining its own military and humanitarian commitments to Kyiv. Prime Minister Mark Carney's attendance at the European Political Community Summit in Yerevan from May 2 to May 4, the first time a non-European leader has joined the gathering, underscored Canada's continued engagement with European partners on Ukraine and broader security questions.

Canada's contributions

Canada has been a major contributor to the Ukrainian war effort since 2022, providing more than $19 billion in military, financial, and humanitarian assistance to date. Canadian-trained Ukrainian soldiers, donated armoured vehicles, ammunition, air defence components, and financial support have been part of a broader allied effort to sustain Ukrainian capabilities.

Canada's participation in the European Union's SAFE defence procurement programme adds another dimension to that support. With a one-time €2.5 million contribution and €7.5 million annually thereafter, Canada became the first non-European country to formally participate in the joint military procurement initiative. Canadian defence companies are now eligible to bid on European defence contracts, which has created opportunities for Canadian industry while also strengthening the supply pipeline to Ukraine.

Canadian humanitarian assistance has also continued, including through the United Nations system and bilateral programmes. Resettlement and immigration support for Ukrainian refugees has continued under several federal programmes, with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians having arrived in Canada since 2022.

What it means for Canada

For Canadian Ukrainians and their families, the continued war means continued anxiety. Communities across Canada, including in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, have deep ties to Ukraine and have organised sustained support efforts for relatives, friends, and broader humanitarian networks.

For Canadian taxpayers, the cost of supporting Ukraine has been significant but defended by the Carney government as essential to the broader security order. Canadian officials have argued that the war's outcome will affect the international rules-based system, with implications for Canada that extend well beyond Eastern Europe.

For Canadian defence policy, the war has accelerated decisions on military spending, capability development, and alliance integration. Canada's NATO commitments, its participation in SAFE, and its broader posture on Indo-Pacific security have all been shaped in part by lessons drawn from the war in Ukraine.

Defence spending and procurement

Canada's defence spending continues to climb toward NATO's two per cent of GDP target, though it has not yet reached that benchmark. The Carney government has indicated that defence spending will continue to rise, with specific investments in air defence, drone capabilities, and Arctic surveillance.

The procurement file remains complex. Canada's air defence acquisitions, including new fighter aircraft and supporting systems, have been long-running processes that the Ukraine war has both accelerated and complicated. Some Canadian-manufactured systems, including artillery components and electronic warfare equipment, have been deployed to Ukraine, providing real-world testing of capabilities while supporting an ally.

Cooperation with European partners has expanded significantly. The Canada-EU Security and Defence Partnership, signed in June 2025 and now operational, provides a framework for coordinated decisions on procurement, training, and operational deployment. The partnership complements rather than replaces NATO, with Canadian officials emphasising that the Atlantic Alliance remains the foundation of collective defence.

Refugee resettlement and diaspora support

Canada's refugee and immigration response to the Ukraine war has been one of the largest in the country's recent history. The Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel programme, launched in 2022, has provided pathways for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to come to Canada on temporary residence permits. Many have transitioned to permanent residency through other federal immigration streams, including expanded family reunification pathways.

Canadian Ukrainian community organisations across the country have been central to settlement support, providing housing assistance, language training, employment connections, and cultural connection points for new arrivals. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress, the Ukrainian Canadian Social Services, and dozens of regional and local organisations have coordinated extensive volunteer and professional support, often in partnership with provincial and municipal governments.

The longer-term integration of Ukrainian newcomers has produced both challenges and successes. Some have settled permanently in Canadian communities and built new lives, while others continue to plan returns to Ukraine if and when the security situation allows. Federal officials have signalled continued support for Ukrainian newcomers regardless of which path individuals choose, including through extended work permits, education access, and ongoing settlement services.

What's next

The most immediate uncertainty is whether the proposed peace framework can bridge the remaining gaps. The diplomatic timeline depends on Russia's response, on Ukraine's ability to maintain its current military posture, and on continued Western support, particularly from the United States, where the political environment around Ukraine has been volatile.

For Canada, the next steps include continued aid commitments, possible additional military contributions, and continued diplomatic engagement through NATO, the EU, and bilateral channels. The Carney government has signalled that Canadian support will continue regardless of how diplomacy unfolds, but the specific composition of that support will depend on developments on the ground.

For now, the war continues. Russian drones and bombs strike Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian forces respond with deep strikes inside Russia. Belarus watches its border. Diplomats negotiate. And in Canada, families with ties to Ukraine, defence officials, and policymakers continue to navigate a conflict that, more than three years in, has reshaped how the country thinks about security, alliance commitments, and the cost of supporting a partner under attack.

The Arctic and northern security dimensions

The Ukraine war has contributed to broader Canadian thinking about Arctic and northern security. With Russia continuing to challenge Western interests across multiple theatres, and with NATO membership now extending across all Nordic countries following Sweden's accession, the security calculus in the High North has shifted significantly. Canadian Armed Forces investments in Arctic surveillance, northern infrastructure, and continental defence have all increased in response.

The North Warning System modernization, the acquisition of new fighter aircraft, and the strengthening of NORAD partnership with the United States all reflect the lessons drawn from Russian behaviour in Ukraine and beyond. Indigenous communities in Canada's North have been engaged as partners in the broader security and infrastructure effort, with consultation and economic participation built into many of the new programs.

The interaction between Arctic security and Russian behaviour in Europe has produced a more integrated Canadian approach to defence policy than has been seen in some previous decades. Investments are increasingly framed as connected rather than as separate regional priorities, and the Carney government has signalled continued investment in this integrated approach as Canadian defence spending climbs toward NATO's two per cent target.