Mexico Sets Date for First CUSMA Talks as Canada Waits and Watches

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed that her government and the Trump administration have set an official date next month for the first round of formal Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement review talks, putting Mexico ahead of Canada in the early choreography of negotiations that will reshape North America's economic relationship. Prime Minister Mark Carney's government, meanwhile, says informal conversations with Washington continue but has not yet announced a corresponding schedule for its own first round, leaving observers to debate whether Canada is being deliberately sidelined or strategically delaying.

Where the review stands

The CUSMA review, mandated by the agreement's text, is set to begin formally on July 1, 2026, the sixth anniversary of the treaty's coming into force. At that anniversary, the three countries can decide by consensus whether to extend the agreement for another 16-year cycle, agree to specific modifications, or take steps that would lead to its eventual termination if no consensus emerges over time.

The Trump administration's trade representative, Jamieson Greer, met with Sheinbaum in Mexico City this past week, and the two sides confirmed that formal Mexico-United States CUSMA talks will begin in May. The schedule appears to put Mexico ahead of Canada in the negotiating cadence, although officials in all three capitals have publicly stressed that the review is a trilateral process with significant overlap among the bilateral tracks.

Canada has not announced a corresponding date for its own formal first round with Washington. Carney's government has indicated that informal conversations are ongoing and that the new Advisory Committee on Canada-US Economic Relations, which held its first meeting on April 27, is helping to shape Ottawa's approach.

The Carney strategy

The prime minister has framed the absence of a formal schedule as a deliberate decision rather than a setback. Carney has said publicly that talks with the Trump administration will take more time than originally anticipated, vowing that Donald Trump will not dictate the terms of any new arrangement and emphasising that Canada will negotiate from a position of resolve.

The strategy reflects two factors. First, the Trump administration's tariff regime against Canada, including Section 232 measures on steel, aluminum, lumber and automobiles, sits outside the formal CUSMA framework, and Canada has been pressing for resolution of those tariffs as part of the broader review. The United States has resisted that linkage, insisting that the Section 232 tariffs are separate from the treaty review.

Second, Canadian officials have argued that engaging too quickly without resolution of the tariff issues would weaken the country's negotiating position. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has been clear that Ottawa does not want a one-off CUSMA deal while industries hit hard by Trump's tariffs are left for another negotiation.

Canada's negotiating priorities

Canada's negotiating priorities going into the review include resolution of the Section 232 tariffs, protection of supply management in dairy and poultry, preservation of the Cultural exception in the agreement, defence of the existing rules-of-origin framework for automotive trade, and managing the broader regulatory cooperation chapters.

The aluminum and steel offer made by the Trump administration this month, which would give immediate tariff relief to Canadian and Mexican producers in exchange for committing to American production capacity, has further complicated the negotiating environment. Canadian officials see the offer as inconsistent with the treaty's core obligations, and have flagged it as a key issue for the review process.

The country's larger economic stakes include the more than $1 trillion in annual cross-border trade, the millions of Canadian jobs tied to integrated North American supply chains, and the broader investment climate that depends on predictable rules.

The Mexican position

Mexico's situation is different from Canada's in several important respects. Mexico has its own significant tariff exposures and has worked closely with the Trump administration on migration, fentanyl interdiction and other border issues that the United States has prioritised. Sheinbaum's government has positioned itself as a constructive partner while preserving Mexican sovereignty on industrial policy and key sectors.

The agreement on a May negotiating date suggests that Mexico has been able to advance further into the formal process. Whether that benefits Mexico in the final outcome or simply commits the country to a structure that may not yield concessions Mexico City wants remains to be seen.

Mexican officials have generally emphasised the importance of preserving CUSMA in some form rather than risking termination. The Mexican economy's integration with the American market is even more concentrated than Canada's, and a serious disruption would have major consequences for jobs and growth in Mexico.

The American position

The Trump administration has used the months leading up to the review to apply maximum pressure on both Canada and Mexico, with tariffs, public statements and incentives designed to extract concessions in advance of the formal negotiations. The strategy has put both Canada and Mexico in the position of responding to American moves rather than setting their own agenda.

Trump and his trade officials have signalled they want significant changes to CUSMA, including stronger rules of origin in automotive trade, additional protections for American manufacturers and concessions on agricultural market access. Whether the administration is genuinely willing to walk away from the agreement if its demands are not met, or simply using that threat as leverage, has been a recurring debate among Canadian and Mexican analysts.

Provincial concerns

Canadian provinces are watching the review closely, with their economic stakes varying significantly by region. Quebec has aluminum and aerospace exposure, Ontario has automotive and steel concentration, the Prairies have agriculture and energy interests, British Columbia has forestry and Pacific port relevance, and Atlantic Canada has fisheries, energy and ports.

Premiers have generally supported the federal government's approach while pressing for stronger advocacy on specific sectoral interests. Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette's trip to Washington this week, alongside earlier travel by other provincial leaders, has been part of a coordinated strategy to make Canadian voices heard at multiple levels of the American political system.

Industry and labour

Canadian industry associations have called for the federal government to maintain a unified strategy and to resist American attempts to bilateralise key issues. The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and sector-specific bodies have all signalled their support for a coordinated negotiating approach.

Labour groups, including the Canadian Labour Congress, have pressed for stronger labour standards in any updated agreement and for protections against the kind of capacity relocation that the Trump aluminum and steel offer might encourage. Workers in tariff-affected industries have been particularly active in calling for federal action.

Sectoral specifics

The CUSMA review will have to address several sectoral issues that have generated friction since the agreement was signed. Dairy market access has been a recurring point of contention, with American producers continuing to seek expanded access to the Canadian market and Canada defending the supply management system that underpins dairy, poultry and egg production.

Automotive rules of origin remain another flashpoint. The current rules require a substantial share of vehicle content to originate in North America to qualify for tariff-free trade, and the United States has been pressing for tighter requirements. Canadian and Mexican producers, integrated deeply into automotive supply chains, would face higher costs if rules are tightened without offsetting concessions.

Digital trade, intellectual property and labour standards are all topics where the three governments will need to negotiate significant updates. The original CUSMA text included new chapters on these issues compared to NAFTA, but the rapid evolution of digital commerce and labour markets has rendered some provisions out of step with current realities.

The Indigenous trade question

Indigenous trade and economic participation has become a more prominent issue in Canadian trade policy since CUSMA was signed. National Indigenous organisations have called for stronger protections for Indigenous economic rights, integration of free, prior and informed consent obligations into trade chapters, and recognition of Indigenous trade in the agreement's framework.

The federal government has indicated it will pursue an Indigenous chapter or significant Indigenous-related provisions in the CUSMA review, although the specifics remain under development. Indigenous trade leaders have urged the government to ensure that the negotiating mandate includes meaningful consultation with national Indigenous organisations from the outset.

What's next

The May start to the Mexico-US bilateral track will provide an early read on the negotiating dynamic and may shape Canada's own approach. Ottawa is expected to use the coming weeks to refine its negotiating positions, build coalitions across provincial governments, industry, labour and Indigenous partners, and prepare for whatever timeline ultimately materialises for its own first round of formal talks.

The CUSMA review formally begins on July 1, with a structured process for assessing the agreement's performance and considering changes. Canada is expected to advance its own negotiating timeline as that date approaches, although officials have not committed to a specific schedule.

For now, Canada's strategy appears to combine patience with public assertiveness, refusing to be rushed into negotiations on terms set by Washington while continuing to make the case for tariff resolution as a precondition. Whether that approach yields better outcomes than Mexico's earlier engagement is a question that will only be answered when all three governments work through the actual review process. For Canadian businesses, workers and consumers, the stakes of getting that strategy right are enormous.

The diplomatic apparatus

Canada's negotiating apparatus for the CUSMA review combines officials from Global Affairs Canada, Finance Canada and several other federal departments alongside political leadership at the cabinet level. The newly created Advisory Committee on Canada-US Economic Relations adds a layer of business and labour input to the policy formulation process.

Canadian negotiators are expected to draw on lessons from the original CUSMA negotiations, which produced a complex agreement under significant time pressure. The current cycle benefits from those lessons but faces its own distinctive challenges, including the broader political volatility of the moment and the willingness of the Trump administration to use unconventional tactics in pursuit of its objectives.