Ford Poll Rebounds as Jet Controversy Fades and Zones Bill Grows

Ontario Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives are clawing back lost ground in public opinion polls as the political fallout from a short lived private jet purchase fades, according to new survey data released this week. The recovery is welcome news for a government that spent much of the spring on the defensive, but the Premier is now facing a different test as legal challenges mount against Bill 5, the legislation that created Ontario's controversial Special Economic Zones regime.

The combined picture suggests that the Ford government's troubles have shifted from a manageable political embarrassment to a more enduring fight over how much power the province can concentrate in cabinet's hands. Major industrial projects, ports, mines, and even Toronto's international airport are now lining up for designation as Special Economic Zones, even as First Nations, municipalities, and environmental groups argue in court that the legislation is unconstitutional.

The jet controversy that wouldn't quite go away

The Ford government acquired a used 2016 Bombardier Challenger 650 jet earlier this year for the Premier's use, a purchase that came under intense criticism the moment it became public. After weeks of headlines, Ford agreed to sell the aircraft back to Bombardier at the original purchase price. Even with that climbdown, taxpayers were left holding roughly 200,000 dollars in associated costs that did not get refunded.

The Premier told reporters this week that no one is more ticked off about the unrecovered costs than he is, and acknowledged the optics of the decision. He stopped short, however, of committing to personally repay the money, saying that the costs should not have happened but were unavoidable given how the transaction had been structured. Opposition leaders have continued to demand that the Premier reimburse the public, and have signalled that they intend to use the issue as a marker of broader concerns about spending priorities.

The poll rebound

Recent polls suggest that voters are willing to move on. The Progressive Conservatives are once again sitting comfortably ahead of the Ontario Liberals and NDP in the latest provincial surveys. Ford's personal approval numbers have also recovered, though they remain below the highs he posted during the early phase of the federal trade fight with the United States. Pollsters caution that the rebound is fragile and that any major new controversy could send the numbers back down.

Analysts say several factors have helped the recovery. The jet was sold quickly and visibly, which deprived opposition leaders of an ongoing line of attack. The Premier has spent much of May at high profile groundbreakings and announcements, including the start of construction on the new Ontario Science Centre at Ontario Place, which the province has committed to opening by 2029 with a budget north of one billion dollars. The Ford government has also continued to lean heavily into anti-tariff rhetoric, which polling suggests remains a politically effective message in Ontario.

The Special Economic Zones bill

The bigger fight, in legal and political terms, is over Bill 5. The legislation gives the provincial cabinet broad power to designate parts of the province as Special Economic Zones in which provincial laws, local planning rules, environmental assessments, and consultation requirements can be set aside or modified. The government has described the regime as essential to fast tracking major projects that would otherwise be tied up in years of approvals.

Several major projects are already lining up for designation. Reports this week indicated that ports, mining projects, industrial corridors, and Toronto Pearson International Airport are among the candidates being assessed for the regime. The government has not yet finalised any designations, but industry submissions are being collected and reviewed by a dedicated team within the Premier's office and the Ministry of Economic Development.

The legal challenges

Bill 5 faces multiple legal challenges. First Nations have argued that the legislation violates the constitutional duty to consult and accommodate Indigenous peoples whenever Crown decisions may affect treaty or Aboriginal rights. Environmental groups, including Ecojustice and Environmental Defence, have argued that bypassing environmental assessment processes is contrary to Ontario's own Environmental Bill of Rights. Municipalities have raised concerns that the regime could override local planning approvals without meaningful consultation.

Several of these challenges have been consolidated for hearings later this year. The province has indicated it will vigorously defend the legislation, arguing that fast track approvals are essential to keep major investment in Ontario at a time of intense competition from American jurisdictions offering aggressive subsidies. Legal observers say the case may eventually reach the Supreme Court of Canada, particularly given recent Supreme Court rulings that have emphasised the duty to consult and the limits of provincial legislative authority over Indigenous rights.

The phone records fight

The Premier is also still navigating the legal aftermath of a Court of Appeal decision earlier this month dismissing the government's bid to block release of the Premier's personal phone records. The Court of Appeal upheld lower court rulings ordering the records to be reviewed, and a 30 day deadline now runs for civil servants to identify which calls must be released and to make a decision public.

The records dispute originated from access to information requests filed during a controversial period of land use decisions and lobbying involving the Greenbelt and other development files. The Court's ruling does not require all the calls to be made public, but it does require the province to engage with the request and to defend any redactions or refusals. Opposition critics have said the ruling shows the limits of the government's efforts to control information flow.

What it means for Ontarians

For Ontario voters, the combined picture is mixed. The PC government is still in a strong electoral position, with a comfortable lead in major polls and a Premier who continues to dominate the political conversation. At the same time, the legal pressure on Bill 5, the phone records dispute, and lingering questions about the jet purchase all suggest a government that is increasingly being asked to defend its approach in court rather than at the ballot box.

For municipalities, the Special Economic Zones regime raises particularly difficult questions. Cities and regional governments have historically had significant control over land use planning and environmental processes within their boundaries. If the province begins designating large industrial sites, ports, or airport lands as Special Economic Zones, municipalities could see those planning powers effectively suspended. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities and the Association of Municipalities of Ontario have both flagged concerns.

The Pearson designation question

One of the most politically interesting candidates for Special Economic Zone designation is Toronto Pearson International Airport. The Greater Toronto Airports Authority has been pressing for streamlined approvals for a series of major expansion projects, including new terminal capacity, an automated people mover, and significant new commercial development on airport lands. The federal government also has substantial jurisdiction over airport operations, which would complicate any provincial designation.

If Pearson is designated as a Special Economic Zone, the move would test the boundaries between provincial and federal authority and would likely produce a constitutional dispute. The federal government has not yet publicly weighed in on the question, but officials in Transport Canada have indicated that they will examine any designation that touches federally regulated lands. The Ford government has framed the question as one of practical economic development rather than constitutional jurisdiction.

The encampment ruling controversy

Ford also weighed in this week on a Kitchener court ruling that barred the clearing of a homeless encampment, describing it as the most ridiculous ruling he had ever seen. The intervention angered some judicial commentators, who said the Premier's language risked crossing the line into improper criticism of an independent judiciary. The province has been pushing for stronger legal tools to clear encampments, an issue that has been highly visible in Ontario cities over the past two summers.

Advocates for unhoused people, including the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty, have argued that the underlying problem is a chronic shortage of affordable housing and supportive housing units rather than a lack of enforcement tools. The Carney government has signalled that federal housing investments will continue to expand, but provincial and municipal officials remain the front line decision makers on encampment policy.

Federal provincial relations

Despite the legal pressures, the working relationship between the Ford government and the Carney government has remained productive on most policy files. Joint announcements on housing, on transit, and on industrial policy have continued, and the two leaders have shown the public capacity for cooperation that voters tend to reward at the provincial and federal levels alike. The two men do not have an especially personal political relationship, but their staffs have built consistent working processes.

That cooperation will continue to matter as the trade fight with the United States plays out and as major infrastructure files move forward. Ontario's economic stake in the tariff dispute is among the largest of any province, and the Premier has been one of the loudest voices in pressing for federal action. Carney's interest in keeping that coalition together gives him an incentive to maintain the working relationship even when individual policy disagreements arise.

What's next

The next several months are likely to feature a series of major announcements as the Ford government tries to build on its political recovery. Provincial budget implementation legislation will move through the legislature in the coming weeks. The phone records will need to be reviewed and a decision made on disclosure. Court hearings on Bill 5 are expected to begin in the late summer or early fall.

For the Premier, the goal will be to keep the political conversation focused on jobs, investment, and infrastructure, rather than process. For opposition leaders, the challenge is to find a sustained line of attack that does not depend on isolated controversies. With the next provincial election still some way off, neither side has time pressure on its side, but both will need to make their case effectively over a long political summer.