Israel Gaza Violations Mount as Netanyahu Eyes September Election

The fragile ceasefire that was supposed to end the war in Gaza is fraying badly. Israeli forces have killed at least 880 Palestinians since the ceasefire was brokered by the United States in late 2025, with Gaza health authorities reporting a total death toll from the war that has now passed 72,797. The latest figures come as Israeli forces ordered the forced evacuation of at least 12 residential blocks across the central Gaza camps of Nuseirat, Bureij, and Maghazi in May, with most of the buildings subsequently demolished.

Human rights officials and analysts have warned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is deliberately stalling the peace process ahead of expected September elections, in an effort to retain support from his right wing coalition partners. The situation has produced new diplomatic pressure on Israel from European and Arab states, and has put the Carney government in the position of weighing its existing policy of measured criticism against growing calls within Canada for more aggressive measures.

The state of the ceasefire

The ceasefire negotiated late last year by the Trump administration was supposed to provide a pathway to a permanent end to the war, the release of remaining hostages, and a process for governing post war Gaza. The agreement has been observed in the broadest sense, with no major Israeli ground operations on the scale of the 2023 and 2024 offensives. But the Gaza Government Media Office has documented at least 2,400 Israeli violations of the ceasefire in its first six months, including more than 1,100 air raids and at least 921 shootings targeting civilians.

An Israeli air raid on a home in Gaza killed three members of a single family, including a six month old child, in the most recent high profile incident. Israeli authorities have generally framed the strikes as targeted operations against Hamas infrastructure, although independent investigations have repeatedly raised questions about the proportionality and targeting of specific incidents. Talks between Israel and Hamas aimed at reaching a permanent end to the war have stalled.

The forced evacuations

The forced evacuations in May are among the most significant features of the current phase of the conflict. The Gaza Rights Center documented 12 cases in which Israeli forces ordered residents to evacuate residential blocks by phone, often with only a few hours notice, before destroying the buildings. The blocks were located across the central Gaza camps and were home to families that had already been displaced multiple times during the broader war.

The pattern of evacuations and demolitions has produced significant new internal displacement, with humanitarian agencies struggling to provide shelter, water, and food to families that have already lost their homes. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has reported that the displacement is straining an already overwhelmed humanitarian system. International aid groups have repeatedly called for the demolitions to stop and for full humanitarian access across the strip.

The September election timeline

The Israeli national election is expected in September, and analysts have argued that Netanyahu's political strategy is shaped by the timing of that vote. The Prime Minister's right wing coalition partners include parties that have opposed any meaningful concession to Hamas or to a post war Palestinian governance framework. Concessions in the negotiation process would risk fracturing the coalition before the election.

Public opinion in Israel has been complicated. Polling suggests that a majority of Israelis support a deal that brings home the remaining hostages, but the support for broader political concessions is much narrower. Netanyahu's electoral calculations have appeared to favour managing the conflict at low intensity rather than pursuing a comprehensive settlement that would require painful political choices.

The hostage families

The families of the remaining hostages have continued to be among the most visible voices in Israel pressing for a deal. Several families have travelled internationally to press their case, including in Canada, and have met with senior officials in multiple Western capitals. The Carney government has met with families and has consistently called for the immediate release of all hostages.

The hostages have been held for more than 18 months, and the conditions in which they are believed to be held have produced significant concern. Israel's negotiators have insisted that hostage release is the central condition for any deal, while Hamas has insisted that a permanent end to the war must be the framing principle. Bridging those two positions has been the core challenge of the negotiation since the start.

The humanitarian situation

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire. Most of the strip's housing stock has been destroyed or damaged. The health care system is barely functioning. Schools have been used as shelters for displaced families, and the education of an entire generation has been disrupted for nearly two years. Aid agencies have warned of acute malnutrition, particularly among children, and the risk of famine has not fully receded despite some recent improvements in aid access.

Israel has maintained restrictions on the volume and type of aid that can enter Gaza, although the formal ceasefire framework included commitments to expanded humanitarian access. Aid agencies, including the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, have repeatedly pressed Israeli authorities for greater access. The Trump administration has been less vocal than previous American administrations on humanitarian access questions, although working level pressure has continued.

Canadian policy

The Carney government has continued the broad direction of Canadian Middle East policy. Canada has called for a permanent ceasefire, for the release of all hostages, and for full humanitarian access to Gaza. The government has maintained Canadian aid contributions to humanitarian agencies operating in the region and has continued to support a two state solution as the only durable resolution to the broader conflict.

Canadian policy has stopped short of measures advocated by some domestic groups, including arms embargoes, broader sanctions on individual Israeli officials, and recognition of a Palestinian state outside of a negotiated framework. The government has framed its approach as one of measured engagement aimed at maintaining Canadian influence with both Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Critics on the left have pressed for stronger measures, while critics on the right have argued that Ottawa has been too critical of Israel.

Canadian diaspora communities

The Canadian Jewish community of nearly 400,000 people and the Canadian Palestinian and Arab Canadian communities of well over a million people have both been active voices in the policy debate. The Jewish community has been broadly supportive of Israel while also expressing significant concern about the humanitarian situation. The Arab and Palestinian communities have been increasingly vocal in calling for stronger Canadian measures and for greater accountability for what they describe as ongoing violations of international humanitarian law.

Antisemitism and Islamophobia have both risen in Canada since the start of the war, according to multiple monitoring organisations. The federal government has expanded funding for community security and has called for greater civility in public discourse on the conflict, but the broader social tensions have been difficult to manage. Major Canadian universities have continued to navigate divisive campus debates, with several institutions adopting new codes of conduct or expression policies in response.

European and Arab responses

European governments have been increasingly vocal in their criticism of Israel's conduct during the ceasefire period. Several European Union member states have called for arms embargoes, and the European Union itself has begun a formal review of its association agreement with Israel. Arab states that joined the Abraham Accords during the first Trump administration have maintained diplomatic relations with Israel but have publicly pressed for greater compliance with the ceasefire framework.

The diplomatic pressure has not been sufficient to produce a major change in Israeli policy, but it has reshaped the international environment in which the conflict is unfolding. Canada has been part of allied conversations about how to push for compliance, and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has been in regular contact with European, Arab, and Israeli counterparts.

Accountability mechanisms

The accountability question has continued to dominate international legal and diplomatic conversations about the war. The International Criminal Court arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials and Hamas leaders remain in force, and member states of the Court continue to have legal obligations regarding the warrants. The International Court of Justice case brought by South Africa under the Genocide Convention is still proceeding through provisional measures.

Canada has maintained its long standing membership in and support for both the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice, while taking a measured position on the specific cases now before each tribunal. Canadian academics and legal experts have been actively engaged in the proceedings, and the federal government has resisted calls from some quarters to withdraw support from the courts. The position has produced criticism from across the political spectrum, but the Carney government has framed multilateralism as a core Canadian value that must be defended consistently.

What it means for Canadians

For Canadians, the Gaza war continues to be a deeply painful and divisive issue. Public opinion is split, often along generational and community lines, and major demonstrations have continued in cities across the country. The political pressure on federal politicians has been significant, with both governing and opposition parties needing to balance multiple competing constituencies.

The conflict has also influenced Canadian foreign policy more broadly. The credibility of the rules based international order, on which much of Canadian policy depends, has been damaged by the perception that Western governments have applied different standards to different conflicts. Restoring that credibility will be a long term project that will require sustained diplomatic and policy work.

What's next

The next several months will be defined by the Israeli election timeline and by the continuing efforts of mediators to broker a permanent end to the war. The Trump administration's continuing involvement, the role of Qatar and Egypt as mediators, and the willingness of Hamas leadership to engage in good faith negotiations are all factors that will shape the outcome.

For the Carney government, the test will be whether Canadian engagement can produce meaningful contributions to peace efforts, or whether Canada's role will be confined to providing humanitarian aid and supporting multilateral processes from a distance. The federal government has signalled that it will continue to press for a durable settlement, but the operational tools available to Ottawa remain limited.