India-Pakistan Tensions Persist One Year After Brief War

One year after a brief but deadly conflict between India and Pakistan brought the nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink of broader war, the political rhetoric on both sides remains as charged as it was during the conflict itself, with key issues including water-sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation unresolved. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi marked the anniversary by declaring that India remained steadfast in its determination to defeat what he called Pakistan's enabling ecosystem of terrorism. The continued tension has implications for the substantial South Asian diaspora communities across Canada and for the broader Canadian engagement with the Indo-Pacific.

What happened a year ago

The April 22, 2025 attack at Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir killed 26 men, mostly Hindu tourists, and triggered a sharp deterioration in India-Pakistan relations. India accused Pakistan-based militant groups of responsibility for the attack and launched a series of cross-border military operations targeting what it called terrorist infrastructure on the Pakistani side.

Pakistan responded with its own military operations, and the conflict escalated to a level of intensity that prompted significant international concern about the possibility of broader war between the two nuclear-armed states. International diplomatic engagement, including from the United States, China and Gulf states, helped to de-escalate the situation, and a ceasefire was eventually agreed.

The conflict ended with both sides claiming significant successes. India said its strikes had destroyed key militant infrastructure, while Pakistan claimed to have inflicted significant losses on Indian military assets. The competing narratives have continued to shape the political environment in both countries through the subsequent year.

Current state of relations

One year on, the political rhetoric on both sides remains intense. Both India and Pakistan have signalled a resolve for further escalation in the event of future incidents, although there have been some quiet indications of secret backchannel talks aimed at managing the relationship at a working level.

India has continued to give stern warnings to Pakistan over what it describes as continuing Pakistani support for militant groups operating against India. The Indian government has indicated that any future attack of similar scale would receive a similarly forceful response.

Pakistan has continued to insist on the importance of dialogue and on the resolution of underlying disputes including the Kashmir question. The two countries' positions remain fundamentally incompatible on these core issues, although both sides have continued to maintain low-level diplomatic communication on practical matters.

The water question

The most consequential fallout of the 2025 conflict was India's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. The treaty, signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, has governed the sharing of the Indus River basin between India and Pakistan for more than six decades and is considered one of the most successful international water-sharing agreements.

Pakistan has said the Indian move poses an existential threat to its population, which depends heavily on the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers for agriculture, drinking water and broader economic activity. India has reiterated that the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan takes credible steps to end its support for militant groups operating against India.

International observers, including the World Bank, have continued to call for the restoration of the treaty's full functioning. The future of the treaty is one of the central questions facing the bilateral relationship in coming years, with significant implications for South Asian water security and for the broader trajectory of the India-Pakistan relationship.

What it means for Canada

The continued tension between India and Pakistan has implications for Canadian diaspora communities, which include substantial Indian Canadian and Pakistani Canadian populations. Canada is home to one of the largest South Asian diasporas in the world outside of South Asia itself, with significant communities in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and other cities.

Both Indian Canadian and Pakistani Canadian organisations have continued to monitor the situation closely and to engage in advocacy on issues of concern to their respective communities. The diaspora response has been characterised by both heightened concern about family members in the region and by community engagement with Canadian political and cultural life.

Federal officials have continued to engage with both communities through standard consular and diaspora engagement channels. The Canadian government's position on the conflict has emphasised the need for de-escalation, the protection of civilians and dialogue between India and Pakistan.

Canada-India relations

The Canada-India bilateral relationship has continued to be complicated by the unresolved issues stemming from the 2023 killing of Sikh Canadian activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia. Canadian intelligence and law enforcement have continued to investigate the circumstances of the killing, and the Canadian government's allegation that Indian government agents were involved has continued to strain the bilateral relationship.

The Carney government has signalled a desire to rebuild aspects of the Canada-India relationship while continuing to maintain Canadian positions on questions of sovereignty and on the protection of Canadian citizens. Federal officials have engaged with Indian counterparts at various levels, including through trade and consular channels, while the broader political relationship has remained constrained.

The Canada-India trade relationship has continued at significant levels, although it is well below what advocates on both sides have called the potential for the bilateral relationship. India has continued to be one of the most significant sources of international students and skilled immigrants for Canada, with patterns of flows shaped by both Canadian immigration policy and Indian economic and political dynamics.

Canada-Pakistan relations

The Canada-Pakistan relationship has been less in the headlines than the Canada-India relationship but has continued to operate at significant levels. Pakistan is a substantial source of international students and immigrants to Canada, and the Pakistani Canadian community is a well-established part of Canadian society.

Federal officials have continued to engage with Pakistani counterparts on consular, trade and security matters. The Carney government has not announced any major change to the broader Canada-Pakistan relationship, which has continued to operate through standard diplomatic and trade channels.

Pakistani Canadian community organisations have continued to engage in advocacy on issues including the situation in Kashmir, the broader Indo-Pakistani relationship and questions of community welfare in Canada. The political engagement of Pakistani Canadians has continued to grow alongside the broader political engagement of South Asian diaspora communities across Canada.

The broader Indo-Pacific context

The continued tension between India and Pakistan is one element of a complex Indo-Pacific environment that has continued to evolve. China's role in the region has continued to expand, with significant Chinese economic engagement with Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and continued strategic competition between China and India over influence in South Asia.

Canada's broader Indo-Pacific strategy, originally announced in 2022, has continued to be implemented across multiple dimensions including trade, security, diplomacy and people-to-people connections. The Carney government has continued the broad framework while emphasising the importance of economic diversification and trade relationships across the region.

Canadian engagement with the broader region has included continued participation in defence and security frameworks, including support for freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and continued investment in Canadian diplomatic and trade representation across the region.

The risk of future escalation

Analysts have continued to warn that the next India-Pakistan conflict could be more dangerous than the 2025 episode. Both countries have continued to refine their military capabilities and strategic doctrines, and the political environment in both countries has not produced any significant reduction in tension.

The role of international mediation in any future conflict will be a key variable. The 2025 conflict was managed in part through significant international engagement, but the trajectory of US foreign policy under President Donald Trump has created uncertainty about the future role of Washington as a mediator in South Asian disputes.

The presence of nuclear weapons on both sides has continued to be the most significant constraint on the trajectory of any future conflict. Both India and Pakistan have continued to operate sophisticated nuclear deterrents, and the strategic calculus on both sides has been shaped fundamentally by the presence of those weapons.

What's next

The India-Pakistan relationship is expected to remain tense through the coming year, with both sides positioned for continued political confrontation in the absence of any significant resolution to the underlying disputes. The water-sharing issue, in particular, is likely to remain at the centre of bilateral and international attention.

For Canada, the focus will continue to be on engagement with diaspora communities, on the management of the bilateral relationships with both India and Pakistan, and on the broader Indo-Pacific strategy. The complexity of the regional dynamics will continue to shape Canadian policy options across multiple dimensions.

For families connected to the region, the continued tension is a source of ongoing concern. The hope for stable and peaceful relations between India and Pakistan has remained a long-standing goal for international observers and for diaspora communities, even as the practical pathway to such relations has remained difficult to identify.