Doug Ford's poll numbers slide after $28.9M private jet reversal

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is facing a slump in his political fortunes after his government bought, then almost immediately returned, a $28.9-million private jet, an episode critics quickly dubbed the 'gravy plane'. Newly released documents from the premier's office show that Ontario taxpayers are on the hook for nearly $200,000 over the reversal, turning a short-lived purchase into a lingering political headache.

The fallout has registered in public opinion. Ford's political favourability has fallen in several polls released after the jet purchase and return, and one survey by Liaison Strategies suggests the governing Ontario Progressive Conservatives have dropped into a statistical tie with the Ontario Liberals for the first time in years. For a premier accustomed to comfortable leads, the shift represents a meaningful change in the provincial landscape.

As Ontario is Canada's largest province, with roughly two in five Canadians living within its borders, the dynamics of its politics carry national weight. The jet controversy concerns taxpayer money, the credibility of a long-dominant government, and the prospects of an opposition that has struggled for years to mount a serious challenge. Together, those threads have made the affair more than a passing embarrassment.

The jet purchase and its reversal

At the centre of the story is the decision to acquire a $28.9-million private jet, a purchase the government later abandoned by returning the aircraft. The about-face did not erase the cost. Documents from the premier's office indicate that taxpayers are responsible for nearly $200,000 tied to the reversal, an expense incurred without the province ending up with the aircraft it briefly owned.

The 'gravy plane' label that critics attached to the purchase was pointed. It echoed the language Ford himself has long used to campaign against waste in government, a brand built on the promise to cut what he has described as excess spending. A costly aircraft acquisition, even one quickly undone, sat awkwardly against that image, handing opponents an easy line of attack.

The roughly $200,000 figure is modest in the context of a provincial budget, but its symbolic weight is considerable. It represents money spent with nothing tangible to show for it, the kind of outlay that is easy for voters to understand and difficult for a government to defend. The reversal, intended to limit the damage, instead crystallised the sense that the original decision had been a misstep.

Government aircraft have long been a flashpoint in Canadian politics, where the optics of leaders and officials travelling on costly planes can quickly overshadow any practical justification. The intense scrutiny that such purchases attract is well understood by political operators, which made the decision to acquire and then return the jet all the more puzzling to observers and all the more useful to the government's opponents.

The release of the documents kept the story alive well after the jet itself was returned. Each new detail about the cost gave the controversy fresh momentum, ensuring that an episode the government likely hoped to put behind it continued to draw attention and to feature in the opposition's messaging. In politics, a story that produces a steady drip of new disclosures often inflicts more damage than a single bad headline, because it denies the government the chance to declare the matter closed and move on.

What the polls are showing

The political consequences have surfaced in survey data released since the jet affair. Ford's favourability has declined across several polls, a broad-based softening rather than a single outlier. That consistency lends weight to the conclusion that the controversy, and the wider mood it reflects, has dented the premier's standing.

The most striking result came from Liaison Strategies, whose poll suggests the Progressive Conservatives have fallen into a statistical tie with the Ontario Liberals. For a party that has enjoyed sustained leads, slipping into a dead heat with its main rival marks a significant reversal of fortune, and it is the first time in years that the two parties have been level in this way.

A statistical tie means the gap between the two parties falls within the survey's margin of error, so neither can be said to hold a clear lead. It does not by itself signal that the Liberals have overtaken the governing party, but it does indicate that the comfortable advantage the Progressive Conservatives long enjoyed has, at least in this measure, evaporated.

Polls capture a moment rather than a verdict, and public opinion can shift again. Even so, the convergence of multiple surveys showing a decline in Ford's favourability, combined with the tightening of the partisan race, points to a government that has lost some of the political cushion it had grown used to. Whether the slide proves durable or temporary remains to be seen.

Favourability ratings, which measure how warmly voters regard a leader rather than which party they intend to support, are watched closely because they often move before voting intentions do. A drop in how Ontarians view the premier personally can foreshadow trouble for his party, and a sustained decline in those numbers tends to embolden opponents and unsettle a governing caucus accustomed to projecting confidence.

A broader run of controversy

The jet episode did not unfold in isolation. It arrived alongside other contentious moves that have generated public pushback, contributing to a sense that the government has been on the defensive on several fronts at once. Among them were changes to OSAP, the province's student financial aid program, and changes to freedom-of-information rules.

Both of those measures prompted protest rallies across Ontario, signalling discontent that extended beyond the spending controversy. Alterations to student aid touch a large and politically engaged constituency, while changes to freedom-of-information rules raise concerns about transparency and the public's ability to scrutinise government decisions. Each issue carries its own constituency of critics.

The combination matters because it shapes the narrative around the government. A single misstep can be weathered, but a cluster of contentious decisions, each drawing protest or criticism, can compound into a broader impression of a government out of step with public sentiment. The jet affair became more damaging in that context, reinforcing rather than standing apart from other grievances.

For the opposition, the convergence of issues offered multiple avenues of attack and a unifying theme around accountability and priorities. The protest rallies provided visible evidence of public unease, giving critics something concrete to point to beyond polling numbers and document releases.

Ford's pitch on the defence bank

Even as he managed the fallout, Ford has continued to advance other priorities, including a high-profile push to bring a major financial institution to Toronto. He has been promoting the city's bid to host the headquarters of a proposed new international defence bank, casting Toronto as uniquely suited to the role.

Speaking at an appearance at Toronto Metropolitan University, Ford made his case in characteristically direct terms. 'There's only one city in Canada that can truly provide everything the bank needs, and that city is Toronto,' he said, framing the bid as a contest in which the provincial capital stands above any domestic rival.

The defence bank pitch reflects the kind of economic boosterism that has been a staple of Ford's tenure, with an emphasis on attracting investment and institutions to Ontario. Securing the headquarters of a major international body would represent a significant prize, and championing the bid allows the premier to project an outward-looking, growth-focused agenda even amid domestic controversy.

Whether the bid succeeds is a separate question, and the proposed institution remains a prospect rather than an established fact. For Ford, the value of the campaign lies partly in the message it sends about his priorities, offering a counterweight to the negative attention generated by the jet affair and the protests over OSAP and freedom-of-information changes.

An honorary degree and the Canada-US theme

Ford also stepped onto an international stage recently, receiving an honorary doctorate and delivering a commencement speech at a university in Michigan. The appearance gave him a platform to address themes that have figured prominently in Canadian political discourse, particularly the relationship between Canada and the United States.

In his remarks, Ford spoke about the close ties between the two countries and about the risks posed by tariffs, a subject that has loomed large over cross-border trade in recent years. By emphasising the depth of the Canada-US relationship while warning of the dangers of trade barriers, the premier positioned himself as a defender of integrated economies and of the jobs that depend on them.

For an Ontario premier, the tariff issue is far from abstract. The province's manufacturing base, especially its automotive sector, is deeply tied to cross-border supply chains, making trade tensions a direct concern for workers and businesses. Speaking about those risks on American soil allowed Ford to advocate for Ontario's economic interests before an audience on the other side of the border.

The Michigan appearance also offered a contrast to the domestic controversies dominating headlines at home. A commencement speech and an honorary degree present a statesmanlike image, and addressing the Canada-US relationship let Ford align himself with a cause that enjoys broad support among Ontarians worried about the economic stakes of trade disputes.

What is next

The central question now is whether the dip in Ford's standing proves to be a temporary reaction to a cluster of controversies or the beginning of a more lasting shift in Ontario politics. The statistical tie reported by Liaison Strategies suggests an opening for the Ontario Liberals, but a single poll showing parity is not the same as a sustained lead, and the governing party retains the advantages of incumbency.

Much will depend on whether the government can move past the jet affair and the protests over OSAP and freedom-of-information rules, or whether those issues continue to define public perceptions. Additional polling in the weeks ahead will help clarify whether the softening in Ford's favourability is hardening into a trend or fading as the controversies recede from the headlines.

For Ontarians, the stakes extend beyond the immediate political contest. The handling of taxpayer money, the transparency of government, and the priorities reflected in decisions from student aid to international bids all bear on how the province is governed. As Canada's most populous province, Ontario's political direction resonates well beyond its borders, making the trajectory of Ford's government a story with national implications.